Mike Fitzpatrick agrees with me. The Mets’ aggresiveness in the post season should garner them a playoff spot. My biggest concern is still the rotation. I like the idea of getting Aaron Heilman back in there, but letting go of both Seo and Benson digs away at our depth. Pedro will be Pedro (i.e., automatic) which means we need a solid season from Tom Glavine.
Glavine had a weird year last year. In more important ways, he declined. His WHIP went from 1.29 to 1.38 and his batting average against went up to .279. While it wasn’t as bad of a season as 2003, it was a step back. Oddly, in 2004 he went 11-14 and last year he actually improved his record to 13-13 despite the declines above.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA sees Glavine having a hard time reaching his previous two seasons. With a VORP of 40.4 in 2004 and 42.4 in 2005, Glavine would have to touch his 75% percentile projection to match what he did last year. His 50% puts him at a 17.8 VORP, a 1.38 WHIP and a pedestrian 4.16 ERA.
So, we need a really good year from Glavine to shore up the rotation. He is playing for a contract in 2007, so at least he has some incentive.
